Novig offers -108 juice on low 7.5 line; simulations favor early offense over Under (+104)
Red Sox vs. Mets Sunday: Sharp money leans Over 7.5 runs
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Summary
To track where the sharp money is leaning before the initial pitch, we cross-referenced our advanced 10,000-game match simulations with the latest contract prices on Kalshi, the premier regulated prediction exchange. With Novig offering a modest -108 juice on the low 7.5 line, banking on both offenses to find an early groove against these pitching shapes offers a very comfortable analytical floor over the Under (+104). The 30-year-old right-hander entered the game with a 6.22 ERA in his previous 10 starts after opening the year with a 3.10 ERA in his first nine outings.
Furthermore, But like so many of his teammates, Peralta has been a disappointment and he didn’t do himself or the Mets any favors in another shaky outing Saturday, a sleep-inducing 4-0 loss to the Red Sox at Citi Field Freddy Peralta gets pulled during the Mets’ July 11, 2026 loss to the Nationals.
Cross-referenced from 2 sources.
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To track where the sharp money is leaning before the initial pitch, we cross-referenced our advanced 10,000-game match simulations with the latest contract prices on Kalshi, the premier regulated prediction exchange.
according to MassLiveWith Novig offering a modest -108 juice on the low 7.5 line, banking on both offenses to find an early groove against these pitching shapes offers a very comfortable analytical floor over the Under (+104).
according to MassLiveThe 30-year-old right-hander entered the game with a 6.22 ERA in his previous 10 starts after opening the year with a 3.10 ERA in his first nine outings.
according to New York PostBut like so many of his teammates, Peralta has been a disappointment and he didn’t do himself or the Mets any favors in another shaky outing Saturday, a sleep-inducing 4-0 loss to the Red Sox at Citi Field Freddy Peralta gets pulled during the Mets’ July 11, 2026 loss to the Nationals.
according to New York Post
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